Jordan’s Diplomatic Edge: NATO’s Role and Regional Impact

​Sahm Tell

In an era where alliances are the bedrock of global stability, Jordan’s strategic partnership with NATO epitomizes the delicate balance between regional diplomacy and international security. The recent establishment of NATO's Liaison Office in Jordan marks a pivotal development in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. This diplomatic maneuver underscores the strategic significance of Jordan as a stable and influential actor in a region fraught with conflict and political instability. The timing of this development is particularly notable, as it coincides with the ongoing war in Gaza and its implications on the region and the world. NATO’s presence in Jordan is seen as a stabilizing factor, reinforcing the kingdom’s role as a mediator and a beacon of stability in the Levant.

Implications for Regional Security: How NATO’s Presence Affects Jordan and Its Neighbors
 
Needless to say, the war on Gaza has once again highlighted the volatile nature of Middle Eastern politics and the importance of dialogue and diplomacy in lieu of war and bloodshed. Jordan’s geographical proximity to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict zones and its historical role in mediating peace talks make it an indispensable ally. By establishing a NATO liaison office in Jordan, the alliance not only acknowledges Jordan's strategic importance but also enhances its capacity to act as a mediator. This move signals a commitment to bolstering regional security frameworks, at a time when the need for cooperative security measures is paramount.
 
NATO's evolving role in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine are certain to be influenced by the upcoming U.S. elections, which have introduced significant shifts in the political landscape. With President Joe Biden out of the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s candidate to the White House brings a new dynamic to U.S. foreign policy. This change at the helm could have far-reaching implications for how the U.S. engages with NATO and navigates these critical global issues. Harris has emphasized her strong support for multilateral relations and cooperation with NATO, advocating for a commitment to collective defense, whilst closely aligning with traditional Democratic stances. In contrast, her main contender Donald Trump has historically been more critical of NATO, advocating for increased burden-sharing among member states. This divergence in policies will impact NATO’s operations in the Middle East, especially after the establishment of the liaison office in Jordan; Harris’ support might result in a strengthened presence in the region, while Trump’s approach might lead to a more conditional U.S. involvement. Jordan's diplomatic strategy is gradually becoming more independent of U.S. aid, a shift reinforced by the establishment of the NATO liaison office, which provides Jordan with alternative avenues for support and cooperation. This development positions Jordan to take a more autonomous role in regional stability, reducing its reliance on any single external power.
 
Domestic Benefits and Regional Challenges
 
Jordan’s involvement with NATO presents opportunities for significant domestic benefits. Diplomatically, it enhances Jordan’s international stature and solidifies its role as a key regional ally for major western powers, promoting political stability and stronger multilateral relations. Militarily, the collaboration between NATO and the Jordanian Armed Forces can lead to improved training, resources and strategic capabilities ultimately strengthening Jordan’s defense mechanisms against regional threats. NATO’s Liaison Office in Jordan brings significant economic benefits especially if it increases foreign direct investment. With its increased worldwide visibility, Jordan may draw in additional investors who see it as a reliable and strategically significant partner in the area. More work opportunities should also be created by the office's operations and associated initiatives, particularly for Jordanian youth. These new opportunities may bring much-needed respite to the kingdom, where unemployment is becoming an increasingly pressing issue.
 
Along its 378km northern border, the kingdom is currently facing heightened challenges from non-state actors in Syria attempting to exploit its territory for smuggling routes to the Gulf. Iran is likely to view the NATO Liaison Office with suspicion, interpreting it as an extension of western influence in the region amid its involvement in Ukraine and the war on Gaza. The dynamics between NATO and Russia could possibly escalate into diplomatic strain, given Russia’s military presence in neighboring Syria and its potential reaction to NATO expanding further east. This may lead to a more complex security environment for the region, requiring careful navigation to maintain regional stability and leveraging NATO’s support, this balancing act is Jordan’s strong suit.
 
The establishment of NATO’s office in Jordan will not come without its challenges and criticisms. As previously stated, some regional actors, particularly those aligned with Iran, may perceive this move as a further rise in Western influence and respond with increased hostility. This could complicate Jordan's diplomatic relations with some of its neighbors and necessitate careful diplomatic maneuvering to avoid exacerbating regional tensions. Additionally, the establishment of the liaison office and the increase in foreign intervention may be met with widespread negative perceptions among the regional and domestic public.
 
Navigating Geopolitical Tensions  
 
An uncertain future with the prospect of war-induced displacement is crippling Gaza and cornering Hamas. The possibility of Hamas relocating to another country after the conflict ends poses a significant regional security concern. If so, Hamas might seek refuge in politically unstable areas, potentially increasing volatility. Jordan’s diplomatic and military readiness will be crucial in countering any such movements. Moreover, the lack of preparation by the international community for Gaza’s future administration could perpetuate a cycle of historical abuse. NATO’s office in Jordan could help foster dialogue between negotiating parties, which is especially important as European public opinion has increasingly supported the Palestinian cause following the war on Gaza.
 
The establishment of NATO’s Liaison Office in Jordan is a strategic move with far-reaching implications. It underscores the kingdom’s critical role in regional stability and diplomacy, and strengthens Jordan’s defense capabilities against transnational threats. As regional dynamics continue to evolve, Jordan’s exemplary diplomatic presence and its reinforced partnership with NATO will be pivotal in shaping the future security and political landscape of the Middle East. The benefits of this partnership, ranging from enhanced military capabilities to increased economic opportunities, will contribute to Jordan's continued stability and its ability to navigate the complex and often tumultuous political environment in the region.

About the Author
Sahm Tell was an intern in IFI's Communications Unit.