Trump's Possible Return: Redefining US Policy in a Shifting Middle East

Maria Andraos

Right-wing political parties are sweeping the West in response to a wave of populism and nationalist sentiment. With the European elections, many voters, especially youth, have cast their votes for right-wing parties out of dissatisfaction with the left and socio-economic grievances. The loss of trust in left-wing parties to implement effective socio-economic policies, coupled with a generation growing more anti-immigrant and pro-nationalist, has opened a political vacuum for strong populist candidates. These populist candidates share a similar platform: a united and closed national stance. Right-wing parties have traditionally promoted sovereignty, national identity, and closed-border policies. Given the increase in migration flows and anti-immigrant sentiment, the topic of border security further fuels right-wing parties' tickets to securing future elections.

Within this context, the United States’ populist front-runner, Donald Trump, stakes a possible claim for the presidency in the 2024 election. If Trump returns to the White House, what would four years of Trump's Middle East foreign policy mean for the region? During his 2016 presidency, Trump's foreign policy broke previous standards of US diplomacy in the region. Trump embraced diplomatic transactionalism, brokering agreements with Gulf countries to undermine Iran, gaining short-term economic advantages, and promoting the normalization of relations with Israel. Another Trump presidency would undoubtedly expand his previous foreign policy agenda, despite new and challenging geopolitical and geo-economic conditions amidst the war in Gaza.

Implications of the Gaza War for Trump

The first 2024 presidential debate was overshadowed by the Israel-Gaza war, as voters along the political divide feel dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of the war and look for positive change in Trump. In the past, Trump has provided clear-cut support for Israel through decisive actions to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. His political support for the Zionist state’s legitimacy encouraged its prominence in the region while undermining the Palestinian cause. As the war wages on, how Trump will respond if he makes it to the White House stands as a contentious and deciding factor in the upcoming election for many US voters. Although the most recent presidential debate dedicated little airtime to the Israel-Gaza war, Trump made his support for Israel clear, urging Biden to “let Israel finish the job.” In view of a second Trump administration, US-Israel relations might stand stronger than under the current Biden administration.

Trump has shown unwavering support for Israel’s “right to self-defense” following October 7, even while making public statements criticizing the Netanyahu administration. Throughout his campaign, Trump has condemned Netanyahu for his poor oversight of Hamas’ attack and subsequent retaliation. With more than half a year into the war, Trump remarks that Netanyahu is “losing the PR war.” Calling for Israel to hurry in finishing its offensive, Trump is offering no more than calculated political advice for his ally. These critiques are concerns, as Israel garners international and political backlash. The continuation of the war jeopardizes the state’s domestic and regional relations and with implications for deteriorating US regional influence. It will be the next president’s imperative to handle the outcome of the war, including implementing a post-war plan. If the past sheds any light on the future, Trump’s unconditional support for Israel and short-sighted economic-based normalization efforts risk undermining a progressive and lasting post-war peace plan.
 
Geopolitical Landscape of Rising Tensions

As the war extends from Lebanon to the Red Sea, the geopolitical landscape is being redefined by spillover effects and rising tensions. While countries bound by the Abraham Accords, such as the UAE, face backlash in support of the Palestinians, they are unable to implement hardline policies against Israel out of hopes for involvement in a post-war Gaza reconstruction plan. Saudi Arabia shares a similar aspiration as it moves forward with normalization talks in exchange for US-guaranteed extensive security. This key bilateral partnership would alter the Middle East’s security architecture and further aggravate regional conflict without reaching a tangible settlement to Palestinian territory and statehood. If elected, Trump will resolidify Israeli-Arab relations, while simultaneously pushing his “America First” policy agenda. This dual-sighted objective would prioritize US-favorable agreements for economic and strategic gains over long-term regional stability or multilateral commitments. Trump previously established close relations with the Gulf states to promote economic interests in oil and arms sales, and it is clear that bilateral relations with Saudia Arabia and the UAE remain a high strategic priority with humanitarian interests falling behind. Considering Trump’s recent business venture in Saudi Arabia, Trump will likely continue the conversation for his economic benefit, if Biden and Saudi Arabia fail to complete their normalization talks before the election in November.

The war is further stirring the geopolitical dynamics between Iran, its non-state actors, and the rest of the region, which could be favorable for Trump. Iran’s role in the war highlights the regional superpower’s far-reaching control and influence, and more so, its perceived threat to Israel and US power. Earlier in April, Iran showcased its undeniable ability to contest Israel in a back-and-forth sequence of exchanges. With Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” as the primary opposition forces, its extensive proxy network serves as a military and political foothold across the region. From supporting Hamas’ October 7 attack, to supplying Hezbollah’s relentless offensives, Iran bankrolls the two closest and most dangerous threats to Israel’s security. The rise of Iran’s non-state actors is exacerbating the region’s security risks, strained diplomatic relations, and tense domestic stability. These factors of conflict may push the Gulf states closer to the US and Trump. In the past, Trump has employed maximum pressure tactics through heavy sanctions and forging alliances with Arab states to shut out Iran. As the war bolsters Iran’s power through proxies and aggravates neighboring countries, Trump will refuel his anti-Iranian campaign in a second term to establish a coalition that rivals Iran.
A potential Trump presidency will continue in the foreign policy footsteps of the first, but under new geopolitical conditions as a result of the war on Gaza. His “America First” mantra would translate into economic priorities, and the Gaza war provides him with the leverage to engage in negotiations with countries like the Gulf states. As the prospects of a post-war reconstruction plan will favor the US and its allies, the Gulf aims to strike deals for its strategic objectives and increase its influence to rival Iran. With a high likelihood of Trump securing a second term, his administration would lead US foreign policy down a path of bilateral economic relations for short-term gains, likely worsening the Palestinian situation and inflaming other regional conflicts.

About the Author
Maria Andraos was an intern in IFI's International Affairs Cluster.