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No 'low-hanging fruits' for economic policy reform
Sami Geadah and Marina Chamma
Lebanon’s new government – now in its third month – has brought a renewed sense of hope that badly needed and long overdue economic policy reforms will be implemented. So far, laws that have passed or been amended – such as the bank secrecy law and bank restructuring – as well as renewed overtures towards the IMF and World Bank during last month’s Spring meetings, bode well for the government’s will and ability for reform.
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Does Lebanon need a fiscal rule?
Sami Geadah
The ongoing financial crisis in Lebanon was precipitated by unsustainable borrowing by the government. Government debt reached 172% of GDP in 2019, an unusually high level globally, including relative to countries facing debt difficulties. This level of debt would not have been possible without the support of the Banque du Liban (BdL) and the participation of domestic banks. Central bank operations aimed at securing a specific amount of inflows from abroad—including nonresident deposits—to help finance the government deficit and maintain a fixed exchange rate.
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A New Agreement with the IMF?
Sami Geadah Lebanon’s new government has appropriately stated its intention to restart talks on an IMF-supported program. It is unlikely that a program could be negotiated and approved by the IMF for some time because of domestic opposition to a program and prospects for a new government following the forthcoming parliamentary elections.
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GCC Commitments to Women, Peace, and Security: Reflections on 25 Years of Progress
Nourah Shuaibi
Today, we have an opportunity to reflect on the progress made by nations in promoting gender equality, while acknowledging the collective global efforts toward achieving a more equitable future for all. In the context of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, we can highlight the significant progress made in incorporating women into peacebuilding, security, and governance.
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Women After War: At the Helm of Rebuilding and Recovery in Gaza
Dalal Iriqat
As the world recently commemorated International Women's Day, the focus is normally on women's success stories, struggles, and resilience. But when there is war and occupation, as with Palestinian women in Gaza, resilience comes in a particular and most tragic form.
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Pioneers of Progress: Tunisian Women Leading the Fight for Equality and Democracy Throughout the Years
Fatma Zahra Delly
Female Tunisian activists, social workers, and politicians have been pivotal in pushing for gender equality throughout the years, from independence to today’s fight for democracy. This article aims to highlight the inspiring legacy of legal reforms by key female symbols, proving their enduring role in Tunisia’s journey toward justice and freedom.
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Media Bias in Conflict Reporting during the Lebanon-Israel War
Sereina Khalifeh
The depiction of conflict within the media is rarely neutral and often subjected to biases. The recent war between Lebanon and Israel provided a first-hand example of the biases in media and the selective reporting that can manipulate the perception of the public discourse. The narrative presented tends to mirror geopolitical alignments, editorial agendas, and societal prejudices. This influences the way the audience analyzes the conflict. This piece will tackle the discrepancies found within media coverage, focusing on the portrayal of events in Lebanon versus those in Israel amidst the war, while critiquing the role of media in escalating polarization and confusion.
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Rebuilding Lebanon: Challenges in Post-War Urban Recovery Lorenzo Cogliolo
After October 8, 2023, amid Hezbollah’s involvement in cross-border fighting with Israel in solidarity with Hamas’ ‘Operation Al-Aqsa Flood’, Tel Aviv escalated the conflict into a full-blown war on September 17, 2024. After more than 4,000 Lebanese killed, 16,500 wounded, 1.6 million people uprooted, a ground invasion, and relentless bombings resulting in what analysts refer to as urbicide, on November 27, 2024, a ceasefire agreement was signed. Accordingly, the Israeli army has 60 days to withdraw from Lebanon. Despite numerous violations of the ceasefire, early reconstruction efforts have already started.
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Lebanon's Post-War Economy: No Substitute to Reform Marina Chamma
In the aftermath of war or major conflict, a country’s economic priorities are usually straightforward, starting with reconstruction, reverting from the demands of a war economy back to regular economic activity in productive and growth sectors, to maintaining price and currency stability, all backed by well thought-out fiscal and monetary policies to support these objectives.
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Lebanon on the Grey List: What You Need to Know Sami Geadah
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) put Lebanon on a list of countries that are subject to increased monitoring because of concerns regarding the effectiveness of Lebanon’s arrangements to combat money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation in October 2024. This list is referred to as the grey list. The FATF noted that Lebanon’s ineffective judiciary and increasingly cash based economy had raised concerns about illicit flows of money into the country.
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The Middle East Viewed From Eurasia: It's All About Realpolitik
Yeghia Tashjian
In his book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, one of the world’s leading realist scholars John J. Mearsheimer argues that in an unbalanced multipolarity, the balance of power is so asymmetrically distributed in favor of one side, that other great powers have no choice but to come together in order to balance the hegemonic power. This is the only rational choice among other great powers. As such, this kind of international order is fragile and always prone to wars. Within this logic, many would assume that Eurasian powers such as Russia and China should have fully backed Iran or its non-state allies in the Middle East to defeat Israel, or at least contain US interests in the region.
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Jordan's Diplomatic Edge: NATO's Role and Regional Impact
Sahm Tell
In an era where alliances are the bedrock of global stability, Jordan’s strategic partnership with NATO epitomizes the delicate balance between regional diplomacy and international security. The recent establishment of NATO's Liaison Office in Jordan marks a pivotal development in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. This diplomatic maneuver underscores the strategic significance of Jordan as a stable and influential actor in a region fraught with conflict and political instability. The timing of this development is particularly notable, as it coincides with the ongoing war in Gaza and its implications on the region and the world. NATO’s presence in Jordan is seen as a stabilizing factor, reinforcing the kingdom’s role as a mediator and a beacon of stability in the Levant.
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Privatization of Lebanon's Beaches
Maria Boulos
Privatization of beaches is regarded as an infringement on the right of people to access and enjoy public spaces, and the source of continuous debates over many years. To start, it can be defined as the legal ownership and control of a certain entity (individual or company) over beaches for the purpose of profit. Those engaged in the legal sphere argue over the legality of beach privatization and the laws that define it, or in some cases, lack thereof. While businesspeople and investors are mostly in favor of privatization, ordinary citizens have expressed various viewpoints around the issue. Read More > |
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Trump's Possible Return: Redefining US Policy in a Shifting Middle East
Maria Andraos
Right-wing political parties are sweeping the West in response to a wave of populism and nationalist sentiment. With the European elections, many voters, especially youth, have cast their votes for right-wing parties out of dissatisfaction with the left and socio-economic grievances. The loss of trust in left-wing parties to implement effective socio-economic policies, coupled with a generation growing more anti-immigrant and pro-nationalist, has opened a political vacuum for strong populist candidates. These populist candidates share a similar platform: a united and closed national stance. Read More > |
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Political Polarization in Jordan after the War on Gaza
Sahm Tell
Political polarization is not a new phenomenon in the Middle East, but in Jordan, the landscape has grown increasingly fragmented in recent years. The war on Palestine, particularly the recurrent hostilities in Gaza and the West Bank after October 7th, has profoundly influenced Jordan’s domestic politics and sociological tapestry, exacerbating existing divisions and creating deeper fault lines.
Read More > The Lebanese Presidential Election: A Key to Avoid Israel-Hezbollah Escalation? Bertille Lietar
On October 8, when Hezbollah opened a front in the South of Lebanon to support Hamas against Israel, it plunged the politically paralyzed country into an unpredictable dynamic, pushing the issue of the presidential vacuum into the background. Left without a President since October 2022 and without a fully-fledged Government or Parliament, the Lebanese state finds itself limited in controlling the extent of a conflict it is unwilling to entertain.
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Russia and the Middle East: Discussions in Valdai
Yeghia Tashjian
On February 13-14, 2024, I received an invitation to attend the 13th Middle East Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club and the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow. The conference, titled “Time for Decisive Action: A Comprehensive Settlement for the Sake of Stability in the Region,” assembled more than 50 participants from 16 countries, mainly from Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Arab countries.
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Bridging Horizons: Chinese Investments Reshaping MENA's Future
Nizar Bou Karroum
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, has significantly expanded China's economic and political influence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The initiative, which consists of a new Silk Road Economic Belt and a maritime road, has drawn in 147 countries by 2023, primarily low and middle-income countries.
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COP 28 Sees Compromises on Loss and Damage Demands in the Absence of Accountability for Big Polluters
Rami Abi Ammar
Established at last year’s COP27, the loss and damage fund became a central item on the agenda for negotiations at this year's United Nations Climate Conference, COP28, held in Dubai. The fund has been a tabled demand since 1991, as developing countries bearing the climatic brunt of historical emissions and continuing extraction activities by developed industrialized states seek finance for averting, minimizing, and addressing climate disasters.
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COP 28: An Opportunity to Address the Vicious Cycle of Food Insecurity and Climate Change in the MENA Region
Mira Machmouchi
Food security has become an issue of international concern due to the ongoing geopolitical turmoil and magnifying impacts of a changing climate. Since 2011, food subsidies in the face of food insecurity in the MENA region cost up to $21.6 billion and were the highest in Iraq, Syria, and Egypt amounting to over 2% of their GDP.
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The UAE is Walking a Fine Line in the Gaza WarJoe Boueiz
On September 15, 2020, at an official ceremony hosted by President Donald Trump at the White House, the Abraham Accords were signed by Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu and the foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani respectively. In the three years since the accords were signed, Israel and the UAE have deepened their ties in several areas such as trade, defense, technology, and energy. However, the outbreak of the conflict in the Gaza Strip, has put the UAE, and other signatories to the Abraham Accords, in an uncomfortable position. How will the UAE balance its profitable relationship with Israel amid the recent developments in Gaza?
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The Opening of a Second Front in Lebanon Seems UnlikelyJoseph Bahout
The sudden, surprising and deadly attack launched by Hamas outside Gaza on the night of Oct. 7-8 may have shifted the Middle East as a whole into a dynamic that, in many respects, seemed to be moving away from lately. For more than two years, the region had been oscillating between tensions — some of them old, others new or renewed — and rapprochements — most of them transactional and cynical, but with a clear trend towards de-escalation, from Syria to Yemen, via the Iranian-Saudi detente.
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What does the Expansion of the BRICS mean for the Middle East? Yeghia Tashjian
This year’s BRICS summit in South Africa came amid a tumultuous, almost entropic period in global politics. Intensifying U.S.-Chinese competition and the war in Ukraine have emphasized geopolitical trendlines. Meanwhile, many newly formed “medium-powers” frustrated by U.S. global politics have found ways to raise their concerns and challenge the unipolar system by reducing their dependency on the U.S. Dollar, while increasing bilateral trade in their own currencies.
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Is the BRICS meeting in South Africa a big deal?Ishac Diwan
For their 15th annual meeting in South Africa, the main agenda item for the BRICS is their enlargement to new entrants – they now include five countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. A popular joke goes by “nice bricks, but where is the mortar?” Perhaps that by growing, the group can get itself a better-defined agenda – in addition to a new name to replace an acronym put together by a British economist working at an American bank.
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Voices from the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum 2023Yeghia Tashjian
Between June 14-17, 2023 I had the opportunity to participate in a program organized by the “Friends for Leadership” to attend the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum. Thousands of delegates mostly from Latin America, Africa, and Asia attended the forum alongside heads of state, diplomats, and businessmen. Interestingly, the UAE had the “special guest” status and anyone could feel its cultural, economic, and political presence in the forum. Delegates were anxious to be informed of the details of the new agreements signed between Russia and other countries, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s remarks and attend dozens of sessions and panels related to the BRICS, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), International North-South Transport Corridor, and North-South trade.
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Can social activism for a new economic model get us out of our deep hole?Ishac Diwan
Lebanon is in a deep hole. Not only is its financial sector badly broken, but so is the state and indeed, its economic model. The country is now much poorer and more unequal. We are stuck in a poverty trap, and it will take generations, or a miracle, before the proverbial phoenix manages yet another rebirth.
This piece, like many written these days, is a search for how to shorten the time to resurrection. There is no easy answer. I will dare to argue that if there is a miracle, it would have to be an economic one. That it can only be engineered by civil society and citizens associations. And that it is unlikely to be of the sudden salvation type, but rather, that it would require several years of activism and organizational work to start showing progress. In the process, I will indulge in multiplying references to my recent work on related issues. Read More > |
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Cholera Outbreak and WEF Nexus Frameworks in LebanonGhida Soubra
As Lebanon struggles amid poor sanitation and collapsing infrastructure exacerbated by the unprecedented and ongoing economic crisis, October 2022 marked the first cholera outbreak in almost three decades. The near epidemic currently being witnessed illustrates the utmost need for adopting a Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus approach. The WEF nexus reflects a holistic, socio-ecological system perspective that values all three sectors equally and draws on the synergies among them.
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Cholera in Lebanon: Challenges and Opportunities within the Water SectorRami Abi Ammar
Cholera is an acute diarrheal disease arising from the ingestion of the Vibrio cholerae bacterium through fecally-contaminated water or food. People infected with cholera may lose up to 25 liters of fluid per day due to vomiting and diarrhea. The loss of fluid and salts can cause severe dehydration and death within hours if patients are not treated promptly and adequately. Cholera outbreaks are often linked to poor water and sanitation infrastructure that facilitates the spread of the bacterium within water and food systems. As such, the risk of cholera epidemics is higher in humanitarian emergency settings, including settlements and crowded areas of displaced populations that lack adequate access to clean water, sanitation and health services. The incubation period of the Cholera bacterium is relatively short (between two hours and five days); therefore, the number of cases and fatalities can increase rapidly, creating serious public health concern.
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مُقاربة لتحرير أسعار الطاقة في ظلّ الأزمات المُتعدّدة في لبنان
Read More > Navigating Through Lebanon’s Looming Water Crisis
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How Things Fall Apart
Read More> This time, Lebanon will not be saved by outsiders
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